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WHAT LIES AHEAD OF THE AMERICAN REVOLT?

WHAT LIES AHEAD OF THE AMERICAN REVOLT?

Most likely the situation will develop in the following way: outstanding democrat Barack Obama will express his support of the participants albeit the police and the FBI will be slowly arresting the "revolt" leaders. Demanding total freedom and inviolability for the rebellious ringleaders abroad (especially in the countries stuck in geopolitical or economic discrepancies with the USA), America isn’t going to stick to the same rule inside the country.

Recently a wave of "Occupy Wall Street" protests against social injustice rolled over the USA. They, however, will barely improve the wealth of 99% of Americans they claim to be representing. The bugbear is that the protesters have no strict program or plan of actions. They merely express the discontent with their economic conditions due to the fact that American companies move the production to the countries with cheaper labor force (to China mostly).

The USA lost 5.6 million jobs in the last 10 years because of that, while their share of the global industrial production dropped from 27% to 19%. The share of the PRC on the contrary went up from 7% in 200 to 19.7% in 2010. Besides, common Americans are dissatisfied with disproportionately large incomes of financial top-managers, whom many people blame for the burst financial crisis.

Most likely the situation will develop in the following way: outstanding democrat Barack Obama will express his support of the participants albeit the police and the FBI will be slowly arresting the "revolt" leaders. Demanding total freedom and inviolability for the rebellious ringleaders abroad (especially in the countries stuck in geopolitical or economic discrepancies with the USA), America isn’t going to stick to the same rule inside the country. We may also foresee that in the nearest future the protest movement will be "criminalized". For example, some allegedly random people will start giving out drugs among the protesters (that’s how the Hippie and the New Left movements were defeated in the 1960s).

There will naturally be a carrot too. The U. S. government will exclaim the tax increase for the rich (although it will likely be a slight cutback of benefits that wealthy Americans have today). The most likely unemployment welfare and educational loan discounts will be rammed up (mind that unemployed and student are the fiercest protesters). Besides, the benefits for industrial companies will likely be pumped up. As likely as not, defense contractors will benefit the most from that decisions (the majority of American industrial companies are concentrated in the defense sector, while the civil production has already been moved to Asia).

All these measure may out the discontent down for some time. Yet, they won’t deal with the matter of gigantic American national debt, but rather aggravate it, as long as the state spending will go up. Sooner or later, the USA will submerge into the depths of people’s revolts again. What will American elites do then?

Usually the ruling classes distracted public attention with wars. That’s how America has defeated the Great Depression of the 30s for one. Roosevelt’s New Deal surely contributed too, but in the end of the 1930s American economy hasn’t restored completely. The WWII, however, stimulated the unprecedented growth of American industrial production and made America the global hegemon.

Quite different matter is that pacifist sentiments are on the rise in America and the war is very unpopular. Society is aware that the rich are profiteering on selling the weapons to the state; rulers got the fame, while the poor got the coffins and medals of Honor. Today America already wages two wars and is unlikely to win any of them. For now the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq irritate the majority of Americans big time.

As for the situation, the next step of American ruling elites will likely be staking at the international conflicts between the major players with the USA as a middle-man, defining the outcome with its interference (as it happened in the WWI, for instance). At that, we might be talking about some local "cold" conflicts, rather than full-scale wars — the one that draw the countries into the arms race and making them borrow money in American banks.

By Sergey Pravosudov

 

 

 

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  • Both American government and the state financial system made plenty of common Americans suffer. Still, hotbeds of protest and mass rallies take place just like 40 years ago. They haven’t become particularly crowded as of yet and American media prefer ignoring their very existence. Meet the laws of post-modern information age: several thousand Middle-Eastern protesters make up a heroic national uprising against the tyranny, while the same sort of rally in the USA is merely a bunch of lunatics, threatening public order and national security.

  • When all the attempts to overcome crisis fail, the witch hunt starts. The only way to give a satisfactory explanation for the obvious discrepancy of the undertaken actions and actually achieved results is to find an enemy without.

  • The U.S. and especially the EU authorities are willing save the operation ability of the current economic system and its institutions, although the stabilization efforts are often late, while their realization is often complicated by internal and external reasons. Interests of supranational alignments, national elites, major corporations, middle class and the poor clash in a Gordian knot of a conflict. There’s a great shortage of the available financial resources and, which is the most important, the time itself. Theoretically the situation still may be fixed, albeit the practical chance of achieving the desired result is dismal.

  • The Hormuz Strait closure by Iran will mainly benefit US oil companies and defense industry. The action will spark a crisis that would make easier to find a solution to the US economic woes and even create an opportunity to curtail its huge external debt.

  • At first I’d like to point out the main thesis of the material: China has long ago become the first economic of the planet. While reports on the U.S. monetary policy contain the new data on its financial troubles all the more often, the PRC macro-statistic data indicates a fantastic increment of steel, cast iron and cement production.

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