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BASHAR ASSAD’S ODDS.
No unity as used to be in "Friends of Syria" ranks

BASHAR ASSAD’S ODDS. No unity as used to be in "Friends of Syria" ranks

It was in Cairo where a Saudi prince made public the sensational news about the existence of Qatar — Israel conspiracy. He came there to express protest concerning the decision of the king of Saudi Arabia to appoint Saudi Amir (Prince) Nayef bin Abdul Aziz an heir to the throne bypassing his five older brothers, including Amir Talal. So President Assad gets one more ace — the growing tension in the states that have played the most important role in all Arab revolutions until now.

No matter how hard Western and Arab "friends of Syria" try, the situation has begun to give some growing, though still modest, hope for improvement. That is the Libyan scenario has hardly a chance to be repeated in Syria. Of course, the usual destabilization pattern is still being enforced. New sanctions are introduced against the Syrian leadership, the opposition abroad activities go on with the same vigor. In some separate cases it’s even on the rise. For instance, a fraction headed by lawyer Haitham Al Maleh, the oldest Syrian leader of opposition to the Assad family since 1970’s, separated from the established "transitional" "Arab spring" leading body — the "Syrian National Council" some time ago.

Walid al-Bunni, responsible for foreign policy contacts in the "Syrian National Council", joined the newly established body. Its goal is to radicalize the confrontation in Syria, to openly recognize the Syrian Free Army militants, and gradually seize influence away from the Council. The renegades think its too soft and too restrained when it comes to use of force against President Assad.

Still the scenario of "orange revolution" in Syria is becoming more and more an empty idea. Traditional events like bringing together "the friends of Syria" continue to take place, the same way it was when they were "the friends" of Libya before. No matter information and diplomatic efforts on the part of the USA, these conferences fail to get any kind of special attention. Though these are not the days of the United Nations glory, the United State and its allies display no readiness to launch intervention into Syria without a UN Security Council’s resolution. The "friends of Syria" are not eager to take personal responsibility for demonstrative neglect of international law and the values they proclaim to be valid for themselves.

Close Syria-Iran bonds to great extent hinder a military action, the diplomatic pressure evokes no such fear as previously anymore. No matter how hard they may be the economic sanctions don’t meet the goal. The combat actions waged by the armed opposition against the Syrian army don’t transform into a government against people stand off.

Along with that Syria goes ahead with democratic reforms that the states claiming to be global human rights defenders have been trying to stall so much. A referendum on Syrian draft constitution was successfully held on February 26. It introduced a multiparty system in the country. Presidential elections will take place in 90 days. It won’t be that easy to say they were not free ones. There is a great chance Abdul Halim Khaddam will run for president. He belonged to the top leadership during the Assad’s rule, but had to leave the country after his participation in an anti-Bashar Assad conspiracy became known. While in emigration he never constrained himself upbraiding the powers that be, but was honest enough not to join the ranks of the Syrian National Council. On January 14 2006 Khaddam declared the establishment of the "government in exile". He’s the most prominent public figure among the emigration ranks. He has acknowledged the fact of receiving funds from the USA and Israel to topple Assad in one of interviews. Now he has a chance to come to power to rule the country his way in case he receives voters’ support.

If Khaddam’s sponsors don’t support him as a candidate it’ll serve as an extra proof of the fact that no one needs a Western type of democracy in Syria. The only interest that exists is chaos, division, permanent revolution and ensuing islamization like it used to be in all previous cases. Really it’s only with the help of most rude methods the USA and Arab sheiks could manage to transform Syria along the desired pattern in case President Assad manages to hold power for more than half a year. And the unity of "friends of Syria" is a far cry from what it had been like before. It’ll be much harder to topple Assad by using force without satellites doing the dirty work.

First the Arab League of Nations Mission in Syria didn’t meet the expected goal. The report tabled by it leads to the following conclusion: the conflict in Syria has little to do with a stand off between a tyrant and people, the opposition is armed as well as the regular army is, but they act with much more cruelty than the military. Then the Qatar militant calls on Arab countries to intervene into Syria and establish "order" there (a democratic order? An Islamist one? Or some other, perhaps?) meet no response.

More over once revolutionary mood willy-nilly spreads everywhere, new conflicts loom in the very "oil monarchies" that many a time have been behind the protests in third countries. It means there may be splits in the "unbreakable alliance" of Arab monarchies that increase the chances of Assad to win. On February 26 Saudi king Abdullah came out with an extensive TV address to the people saying "anonymous hands" sparked a string of insurrections known as the "Arab spring". The events are aimed at "Arabs and Islam". The commentators were quick enough to suggest that the king meant Iran. But the king’s brother Amir Talal bin-Abdel Aziz confirmed the existence of the "Qatar — Zionist plan to split Saudi Arabia and Syria in favor of Israel’s interests".

According to Lebanese Al Banaya newspaper he said so while meeting three Arab politicians in Cairo. Amir pointed out that the Qatar leaders pursue the purpose of containing the influence of Al-Saud dynasty with the blessing of the USA. A part of Saudi territory adjacent to the Jordan’s border is planned to be used for Palestinian settlements. He emphasized Qatar coordinates its activities with some Saudi leaders and Israeli special services to convert Saudi Arabia into a beachhead for US-Europe-Israel attack against Iran. Amir Talal warned some leaders of the Gulf states about the Qatar’s plans to destabilize the situation. He said power struggle in Saudi Arabia may lead to bloody clashes.

It’s worth to note it was in Cairo where a Saudi prince made public the sensational news about the existence of Qatar — Israel conspiracy. He came there to express protest concerning the decision of the king of Saudi Arabia to appoint Saudi Amir (Prince) Nayef bin Abdul Aziz an heir to the throne bypassing his five older brothers, including Amir Talal. So President Assad gets one more ace — the growing tension in the states that have played the most important role in all Arab revolutions until now.

 

 

 

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