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This September told our readers about a scientific method of estimating the chances of contenders for the U. S. presidency based on an analysis of 13 factors, which the inventor of the system Alan Lichtman dubbed «The keys to the White House». Author claimed the lack of major scandals concerning the incumbent government to be a key #9. A month ago the incumbent President held that key and now he seemingly lost it.


The first profound scandal has flared up in the bosom of the West Wing, which threatens to stain the yet-crystal-clear reputation of Barack Obama. Several weeks ago American company Solindra was proclaimed bankrupt. The incident itself is a commonplace one — the economic crisis taught Americans to meet such news valiantly. Yet, the consequences of this bankruptcy may destroy the election campaign of the acting President. California-based Solindra has been manufacturing equipment for producing the electric energy out of sun light. Given the peculiar significance of renewable power supply technologies for the current U. S. administration, company was earmarked $527 million from the budget. Solindra was to become the leader of green-job creation. This was essential point of Obama’s economic program.

Solindra production plant

This August Solindra fired 1100 workers, which was quite a blow for the White House. The FBI started to investigate the case. Washington Post journalists managed to find an e-mail correspondence, which gives evidence that that White House exerted pressure upon federal institutions in order to hasten the lending of a major loan to this company. The haste was conditioned by Joe Biden’s statement regarding the success of the governmental stimulus program. He has personally laid the firs brick into the foundation of Solindra production plant. The situation itself is scandalous enough, but it turned that it’s not the worst of it. As The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported, billionaire George Kaiser is one of Solindra investors and that he donated $100.000 to Obama’s campaign in 2008. Hair-splitting journalists have even laid their hands upon the White House visits journal and discovered that since 2009 Mr. Kaiser had visited one of Presidential aides 16 times. Infuriated Republicans have immediately attacked Obama accusing him of «capitalism for his kin» and nepotism. According to American political traditions this compromising scandal will slowly smolder until the election in November 2012. It’s hard to predict what impact it will have on the electoral preferences of common Americans. Be as it may, but according to Lichtenstein classification, Obama lost the ninth key to the White House.

Herman Cain and Barack Obama

American political racecourse

I’d take the risk of being accused of political incorrectness or even worse things and would dare to say that American election race resembles the racecourse with no horses, but the dark ones racing. Republicans, in their desperate search for a decent opponent to Obama, have come up with a completely new political figure — Herman Cain — whom they believe to become a profound alternative for the voters. Cain has become a hero of American media after the debates at Hannover (NH). The topic was the most urgent for today’s America — the economics. Former boss of a peculiarly named company Godfather’s Pizza offered to drastically change the America tax system, having substituted the sophisticated progressive taxation with three 9% taxes — paid by corporation, individuals and the sales tax respectively. The opponents have claimed the 9-9-9 Cain’s program unrealistic and there are grounds for that. Bringing his ideas to life require changing the Constitution too, as long as the income tax was imposed as an amendment to the Constitution in the beginning of the 20th century. Cain himself considers his system to be quite transparent and sound, countering it to the extensive 60-point program of Mitt Romney — GOP favorite and the former Massachusetts governor, famous for his business gift.

The latest public opinion polls held by NBC News indicate that Herman Cain is in the lead of Republicans with the result of 27%, outstripping Mitt Romney by 4% and Rick Perry by 11%. A month ago Perry led the polls with 38%, followed by Romney with 23% and Cain with 4%. American sympathies are mutable.

What kind of Presidents do Americans like?

American PPP poll center has decided to celebrate the beginning of the election season with yet another pan-American poll, asking them whom of the latest nine Presidents they liked the most. In spite of being the best piano man of all his colleagues, Richard Nixon placed last. Merely 19% of Americans like Nixon and 62% don’t, which makes a −43% difference against him. George Bush Junior took the 8th place (41% for and 51% against). Lyndon Johnson, who voluntarily left the White House 42 years ago, refusing to run for the re-election is on the 7th place (36% for and 39% against). Jimmy Carter, who liked to tell journalists about his encounters with aliens at his ranch, is the 6th (45% for and 43% against). George Bush Senior is the 5th — he hasn’t been reelected at the due time, but now has restored the American trust (53% for and 35% against). Gerald Ford is the 4th (45% for and 26% against). It’s quite characteristic that he’s especially popular among the voters, who like neither Democrats, nor Republicans. Bill Clinton, whom voters liked for his blues passion (or some other flaws), is the 3rd with 62% for and 34% against. The architect of Reaganomics Ronald Reagan is the 2nd (74% for and 15% against). John Kennedy has expectedly placed the 1st in the rating (74% for and 15% against). At that, today both Republicans and Democrats, senior citizens and youngsters, rich and poor, educated and illiterate love him the same.

What analytical conclusions may we draw from this research? Americans clearly dislike strangers, piano music and those avoiding the fight. They like blues, economic upswing, playboys and assassinated leaders. It’s hard to say what conclusions Democratic and Republican election staffs will draw from it, though.

By Gregory Tinsky




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