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WILL ALGERIA BE THE NEXT TARGET? Interests of the USA, France and Al-Qaida have tied into a single knot
 

WILL ALGERIA BE THE NEXT TARGET? Interests of the USA, France and Al-Qaida have tied into a single knot

Algerian militants are tightly bound to the Special Services of certain Gulf States, pursuing their own goals. Time of peace for Algerian is at an end. Talkative Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi has indirectly confirmed it, announcing his intention to replace the Algerian gas with Libyan one soon enough. Mind that Algeria as a supplier has never left a handle for reproaches.

The so-called Arab Spring fits the name all the less. This may be said both of its metaphorical meaning and the very chronology. NATO operation in Libya was prolonged up the New Year, where the "spring" turned be "winter" because of Libya. Even the relatively peaceful Egyptian-kind scenarios have revealed the trend of moving into the power-play phase.

The question "who’s next" is anything but idle. And what dressing will the new dish of the "democratic feast" be "served with"? Thanks to the efforts of quite a number of countries Middle East was turned into an unstable and explosive structure, which state only aggravates furthermore. All the new fraught with potential war crises — for example the one in the Turkish-Cypriote-Israeli relationship — emerge constantly.

An attempt to repeat the Libyan scenario in Syria is almost inevitable. "It is past time the UN Security Council imposed sanctions against the Syrian regime, siding the Syrian nation" — Barack Obama proclaimed. During the recent visit to Tripoli French President Sarkozy has once again emphasized that Libyan events should first of all be a lesson for Damascus. Almost simultaneously with that demarche, the U. S. foreign-policy body strongly advised its citizens leaving the Syrian territory.

Without waiting for the UN Security Council decision Obama’s Office in cooperation with Turkey started developing a detailed regional strategy for the period after overthrowing Syrian President, whose fate, thus, was decided in advance. The main goal was defined as the prevention of inter-confessional civil war between Syrian Sunni, Alawites, Kurds and Christians. This seems to be a sound precaution — Libyan war has demonstrated that bringing the legitimate government down and coming of "our-sons-of-bitches" to power doesn’t necessarily mean the actual stability and control. Simultaneously with that the very fact of showy development of such strategy — basically dividing Syria into the "occupation zones" — proves that the decision on Syrian invasion has already been made. At that, it was made regardless of reforms, which Bashar al-Asad is going to carry out or already does.

Libyan experience has also demonstrated that the air strikes alone do not win the war (especially if the allied "native" troops cannot be considered an example of fighting capacity). Western armies have of course conducted the ground operations, but still they carried out circumspectly of the rest of the world, which obviously affected their efficiency. There are grounds to believe that the strategy worked out by Turkey and the USA will take that detail into consideration.

Libyan precedent has also demonstrated that a more substantial occasion than a riot of a minor part of dissident-minded citizens in a single province is necessary. And now this occasion seemingly appears.

On the 17th of September, holding a speech at the Harvard School of Law, U. S. presidential aide on the fight with terrorism matters John Brennan, defined a new milestone in the international relations. From now on the USA reserves itself a right for unrestrained military operation in any spot of the globe. "As the President (Barack Obama) has repeatedly stated, we’re in the state of war with Al-Qaida" — Brennan said. "As long as we’re involved into a military conflict, the United States stick to a position, which — with respect to the international legislative norms — allows us acting against Al-Qaida without analyzing, whether these actions are conditioned by the self-defense interests, or not" — he said. "We reserve a right to conduct unilateral actions in case if the foreign governments are unwilling or incapable of undertaking the necessary measures" — Brennan denoted. According to him, the primary goal of the USA is the "individuals, endangering the country". The U. S. authorities believe that if the aforementioned individuals fetch themselves at the territories of the third countries — the worse it is for the said states. If the U. S. President decides that the government of a certain country doesn’t fight threats to America good enough — it may undertake the "unilateral actions". At that, Washington proceeds from the notion that the assassination of such threatening individuals "may significantly — albeit temporarily — violate the agenda and designs of Al-Qaida and the connected powers".

Numerous American experts tend to believe that Al-Qaida is subjected to the Special Services of the closest American allies in the Arab world, if not to the U. S. special services themselves. For example, it may be the Saudi Arabia we talk about. Until recently Al-Qaida was geographically tied to Afghanistan and the Taliban, which allowed justifying the presence of American country there. Yet, this spring U. S. officials — the State Secretary Hillary Clinton for one — made a number of statements, which directly claimed the Taliban may proceed as it will, but Al-Qaida is spread all over the world, which is why it is to be fought all over the globe too.

"Al-Qaida and its branches often prosper among chaos and lawlessness, when the governments are unable to efficiently govern their country" — said Brennan. "Helping out such countries to create a robust legal system along with efficiently guarding it institutions, might serve as the most successful mean of fighting groups like Al-Qaida". But why does the USA provoke this chaos all over the Middle East with its own hands then?

Perhaps, it’s necessary to create conditions for empowering Al-Qaida in order to occupy these territories later? Alas, this question is hardly farfetched as long as Al-Qaida and its "associates" feel quite comfortable in the countries of the Arab Spring. At that, Abdelkhakim Belhadj, former leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group — well-known branch of Al-Qaida, which the USA itself blacklisted as the "terrorist organization" — is the current military governor of Tripoli. Even the current ideologist of Al-Qaida Ayman az-Zawahiri described Belhadj as a "Mujahidin emir" — "leader of warriors". Thus, the U. S. fight against Al-Qaida seems rather weird. The line, separating enemies from allies seems rather vague.

And what if this line shouldn’t be sought at all? Why destroying Al-Qaida if the fight against it can be used as an occasion for invasion whichever it’s necessary? At that, we may predict with a certain confidence even today that Algerian turn will almost surely comes after Libya. According to the reports of the U. S. Embassy, Al-Qaida is on the rise there.

Communiqué of the American diplomatic mission points out that the terrorist network is preparing the acts of terror against the Western oil companies, operating in Algeria. In its turn Algerian newspaper El Habar, referring to the sources in the U. S. special services, reported that Al-Qaida is going to strike against the oil companies in Sahel and North Africa. U. S. authorities have also warned the Western oil companies acting in Algeria that Al-Qaida may commit several acts of terror against its employees and equipment. Other report of the State Department indicates that we may be talking about the plotted destruction of planes, rented by the oil-producers. In order to realize these sinister plans, terrorists have acquired a lot of JVFS, stolen from the Libyan arsenals. But why have these JVFS appeared just now and haven’t been used, while the NATO aviation was flying over Libya? Yet another rhetoric question without it is.

At the same time, on the 26th of August an act of terror besides the military academy in Algerian town of Cherchell took place, resulting in 44 people dead and wounded. Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb assumed the responsibility for it — its representatives have underlined that it was committed to revenge Algeria for its support of Gaddafi’s regime. At that, spokesmen of the Libyan TNC have promised Algeria with a terrible revenge for supporting Muammar Gaddafi and for blaming Libyan rebels in the unrestrained proliferation of weapons all over the region even before they actually came to power. If the TNC and Al-Qaida jointly avenge Algeria, when does the TNC end and the international terrorism begin then?

Meanwhile the same political processes as in Libya, Syria and Egypt are under way in Algeria. "Triumphed" Libyan rebels are the full-fledged brothers-in-arms to Algerian militants, who have been waging the anti-governmental activity since the 90s. After the split of the Islamic Salvation Front (ISF) and the defeat of the Armed Islamic Group (AIG) the most radical Islamists, who refused t surrender, have united into a so-called Salafist Group of Jihad Sermon, which has been in the sphere of Al-Qaida influence since 2006. Algerian militants are tightly bound to the Special Services of certain Gulf States, pursuing their own goals. Time of peace for Algerian is at an end. Talkative Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi has indirectly confirmed it, announcing his intention to replace the Algerian gas with Libyan one soon enough. Mind that Algeria as a supplier has never left a handle for reproaches.

Pro-French and France-backed forces like Kabylie separatist organizations, which organized several bellicose actions in 2001-2002, started active preparations for the uprising. Algerian state system looks extremely vulnerable in front of "democratic adherents’" demands (according to Algerian laws, the President may rule the country for life). Algerian opposition is already uniting around a "National Coordination for Change and Democracy" (NCCD) alliance. It regularly carries out the prohibited marches. As it always happened before, almost an entire spectrum of an actual opposition — from moderate Islamists to socialists — have gathered under its banners.

Thus, everything’ ready to repeat the Libyan scenario (not even the Egyptian one) in Algeria. In 2012 we’re likely to see the new reincarnation of Arab Spring.

By Alexandre Vishnevsky

 

 

 

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