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WAG THE DOG: POOR TAKE OF OBAMA. "Attempt" on the Saudi Ambassador to the USA: Foreign analysts on the official Washington version

WAG THE DOG: POOR TAKE OF OBAMA. "Attempt" on the Saudi Ambassador to the USA: Foreign analysts on the official Washington version

Speaking of official Tehran not being privy to Arbabsiar’s plots, American analysts can’t rule out the possibility that a full-scale and sophisticated provocation is unleashing right before our eyes: "Is it possible that the assumed conspiracy was the provocation of external powers, trying to flint a conflict between Iran and its enemies?"

How can the U. S. President be aided to distract public attention from the apparent failures of his administration? The famous movie "Wag the Dog" has a working recipe. We’re having an impression that the press-conference of Eric Holder (where he revealed "the data about Iranian plot to be carried out at the territory of the United States that American government discovered") was designed as a remake of this movie — with the only difference that the remake is truly dull.

Eric Holder stated that Iranian special services wanted to explode the Saudi Ambassador to the United States Adel al-Jubeir in one of the Washington restaurants. Naturalized Iranian expatriate Mansur Arbabsiar (arrested on the 29 Sept in New York City) and his brother-in-law Gholam Shakuri (currently wanted) were named the possible executives for the job.

Official reports claim that Arbabsiar cooperated with the Islamic Guards, while Shakuri was employed by Quds special service (a part of Islamic Guards). Holder reported that Iranian government was ready to pay $1.5 million for the assassination of Saudi diplomat. $100.000 was transferred to an account at a certain American bank in advance.

Glaring discrepancies of the official version caused a wave of criticism and skeptical notes in the USA itself mostly. A week later, concluding the media reaction to Holder claims, we may state that the effort to discredit Iran waged by the U. S. State Department has almost failed, while the analysis of independent expert has tore the official version to shreds...

An entire mass of criticism towards the Holder’s version may be divided into five following groups:
Distrust to the official information sources (American special services that made it public);
Distrust to the reported plot scheme and Iranian participation;
Distrust to the reported executive, i. e. the doubts in Arbabsiar abilities. And, of course, most of comments attempt to answer, who benefitted from the White House campaign.

Distrust to the official information sources

Almost immediately after the address of Eric Holder a part of commentators expressed its skeptic attitude towards the information sources. Ray McGovern, for example, the former CIA employee with 30 years of experience commented that the only information source in the case are the leaders of Justice Department, who have already shaken the faith into the themselves.

Foreign Policy analyst Stephen Walt doubted "the legitimacy of the case" — "proceeding from the dubious FBI record, it’d be naïve believing their accusations to be a real thing. Sometimes only a fine line separates the exposure of a real terrorist plot from the exquisite and unapparent instigation for it". Walt called to treat the claims about the exposed plot "with a certain share of skepticism" and not be too hasty with conclusions in his article. "The USA and the certain allies of ours have done the same things in the past (including the attempts to bomb Muammar Gaddafi’s tent in the 80s and CIA attempts to kill Fidel Castro in the 60s)".

Distrust to the reported plot scheme

Almost on the same day, commenting on the Holder’s statement, one of the chiefs of American law enforcement body anonymously commented the plot: "This is so different from the way they usually act. This is not a state plan..." The majority of those criticizing the official version (I’d call them skeptics for the sake of convenience) have exhaustively developed the thesis during the week.

"If we have a closer look at the U. S. claims, we may see the discrepancies with the reported Quds denial of its usually sound tactic of preparing to the operations being the biggest of them. If we collect all the discrepancies presented by people familiar with Quds deeds together, the problem will be that this unit always acts thoroughly and with careful planning in order to guarantee the secrecy of their actions (i. e. the inability to tie them to Iran) and their success. That’s exactly why it seems so improbable that the said plot can be officially traced to this unit whatsoever" — says the author of "Iran and the Science of Killing".

British The Guardian also pointed out to the sheer discrepancy of Quds (and Iran leadership in general) style and the scheme, voiced up by the official Washington in its "Unanswered questions over the alleged Iranian assassination plot" piece:
1. It appears very unlikely that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would approve such a brazen plot with such unpredictable consequences, in effect going to war with Iran’s three greatest enemies —Saudi Arabia, the US and Israel — at the same time. The watchwords of Khamenei’s 23-year tenure have been caution and regime stability. He has attempted, not always successfully, to calibrate the nuclear programme to avoid uniting the UN Security Council against Iran, while pushing on steadily. Iran, under his guidance, has worked very hard to mitigate the international impact of sanctions and is sensitive to its standing in the Islamic world. Things are generally going well for Tehran in the triangular relationship with the US and Saudi, as Washington and Riyadh had fallen out badly over the Arab spring and Palestinian recognition. Why would Khamenei and his regime risk all this on such a bizarre plot?

2. The Quds force has previously gone to great lengths to ensure its fingerprints are not found on attacks abroad. It almost always operates through trusted proxies such as Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias which the Revolutionary Guards have trained in most cases. Despite years of investigations, there is suspicion but no proof of Iranian involvement in the 1983 bombing of the US embassy in Beirut and the 1996 attack on the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia. In this latest alleged plot, the Quds force was purported to be working with a Mexican drugs cartel, the Zetas, with an Iranian-American used-car salesman as middleman (the plot was said to be codenamed Chevrolet). The link was made because the car salesman, Mansour Arbabsiar, was allegedly a cousin of a "big general" in the Quds force and a friend of the aunt of a Texas "associate" of the Zetas. Arbabsiar revealed the Iranian nature of the plot to this man, who turned out to be a US government informant. Why would the Quds force now throw its professionalism and caution to the wind?

Gary Sick, former aide on the U. S. national security who now works at the Institute of Middle-Eastern Research at Columbian University of New-York, claims the same thing: "I have some troubles believing into a Hollywood-like scenario of the White House...Even assuming such conspiracy actually existed I can hardly believe that such a criminalized (and completely non-Muslim) group like Mexican drug cartel would have been hired for such an important task".

Even the utmost cautious comment of Kenneth Katzman expert on Iran from the Congress research service clearly states that "certain elements of the alleged plot are nonsense". The greatest mistrust of expert caused "the idea to use a cars seller from Texas, who is not a Quds employee himself and has been living in the USA for quite a time". Katzman doesn’t rule out the possibility that "some contacts with Quds might have taken place", albeit it’s hard to believe this conspiracy to be directed from a single center, thoroughly planned and approved by the top Tehran authorities.

Simon Henderson, Washington Institute for Near East Policy officer has generalized the bewilderment: "Why might Iran wanted to commit such crime, with their prints "all over the case" here in the United States, where it would’ve surely influenced — and will influence — the U. S. policy towards Iran? If the disclosed official prosecution report was right and ‘about hundred and fifty men’, including ‘Senators’ were killed or wounded, the White House would’ve faced a tremendous political pressure for ordering a punitive strike at Iran".

The Daily Beast editors share his opinion: "We shouldn’t consider Iranians an irrational nation, recklessly wishing to harm Americans by any means, as the Western media often tends to depict them. Even after the purge of 2009, Tehran regime is not even Iraq of Saddam Hussein by far — in his ill-considered aggression the latter one has brought his accidental suicide nigh". As the saying goes "what an accurate wording".

Distrust to the reported executive

Hair-splitting American reporters have dug everything there was to know about the main suspect on the case, 56-year-old used cars seller from Corpus Christi Mansour Arbabsiar. The more we got to know the man, the more doubts we had regarding his energy and mental health — all the more, in his ability to carry out what he had told in his contradictory and mixed up testimony.
Professor Juan Cole from the Michigan University, majoring at the Middle and Near East, has formulated the doubts of his mental health the most clearly in his comment "Wagging the Dog with Iran’s Maxwell Smart": "Make your own judgment, whether the man of the following merits may be a 007 agent":

10. Arbabsiar was known in Corpus Christi, Texas, "for being almost comically absent-minded".
9. Possibly as a result of a knife attack in 1982, he suffered from bad short-term memory.
8. He was always losing his cell phone.
7. He was always misplacing his keys.
6. He was always forgetting his briefcase and documents in stores.
5. He "was just not organized," a former business partner remarked.
4. As part owner of a used car dealership, he was always losing title deeds to the vehicles.
3. Arbabsiar, far from a fundamentalist Shiite Muslim, may have been an alcoholic; his nickname is "Jack" because of his fondness for Jack Daniels whiskey.
2. Arbabsiar used to not only drink to excess, but also used pot and went with prostitutes. He once talked loudly in a restaurant about going back to Iran, where he could have an Iranian girl for only $50. He was rude and was thrown out of some establishments.
1. All of his businesses failed one after another.

Not long before Arbabsiar decided to become an "international terrorist" yet another company he had created came to ruin and he was unable to pay his mortgage. On top of it all, his second wife left him. I think that all that has aggravated the mental disorder of his, driving him to the verge of madness".

Who’s to blame and why’s the White House doing it?

Speaking of official Tehran not being privy to Arbabsiar’s plots, American analysts can’t rule out the possibility that a full-scale and sophisticated provocation is unleashing right before our eyes: "Is it possible that the assumed conspiracy was the provocation of external powers, trying to flint a conflict between Iran and its enemies?" The aforementioned Foreign Policy Association author offers an answer to this in his article: "Who else might have come up with such a bold plan, intended to strike down the Saudi and Israeli interests in the USA? Here’s a couple of names: Mujahidin-e Khalq and the rebels from Iranian Baluchistan. Both could’ve taken advantage from the situation like that. Yet, a lax operation, huge benefit from the increased hostility towards Iran and the financial resources for carrying out an operation like this point out to Mujahidin-e Khalq as a more appropriate culprit. The organization attempts to aggravate Iranian isolation and discredit its top authorities".

Most of analysts and experts, however, tend to think that it was primarily of interest for the administration of Barack Obama. At that, experts believe that launching the information into the media space it had several goals in mind. Firstly, the threat of terrorist acts was to distract public attention from the apparent domestic and foreign policy failures.

Secondly, the USA intended to use the motto of "Iranian terrorist threat" to convince its allies to toughen the anti-Tehran sanctions. Simultaneously with that, the USA was to threaten Khamenei and Ahmadinejad into making give-and-takes on the nuclear program and Syrian support issues. Thirdly, the administration hinted the Saudi dynasty that they can resist Iranian claims for regional dominion only in a tight cooperation with the USA.

By Igor Pankratenko

 

 

 

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"NUCLEAR CALIPHATE" ON THE AGENDA OF THE DAY. Death of Sultan bin Abdul Aziz al-Saudi and the intrigues about the Saudi throne
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WAG THE DOG: POOR TAKE OF OBAMA. "Attempt" on the Saudi Ambassador to the USA: Foreign analysts on the official Washington version
Speaking of official Tehran not being privy to Arbabsiar’s plots, American analysts can’t rule out the possibility that a full-scale and sophisticated provocation is unleashing right before our eyes: "Is it possible that the assumed conspiracy was the provocation of external powers, trying to flint a conflict between Iran and its enemies?"

 

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Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies are the strategic partners of the USA, the unsinkable battleships of it. Obama’s office is ready for more than just piling Al Qods, drug traffic and Los Zetas into a single heap for them. They can go as far as exclaiming the new terrorist plot against America and create the new "Iranian Al-Qaeda" for that sake. State Department microphones and White House paper can bear that much and more.

 

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